1. Market Overview: The $7.8 Billion Milestone and Rapid Growth
The year 2025 marks a historic turning point for Vietnam’s agricultural sector, particularly in the fruit and vegetable industry. Despite global economic fluctuations and challenges from climate change, this sector has risen to become a brilliant highlight in the overall export picture.
According to the latest statistics from the Vietnam Fruit & Vegetable Association (Vinafruit) and the Ministry of Agriculture, the accumulated export turnover for the first 11 months of 2025 has reached $7.8 billion, recording an impressive growth of 18% compared to the same period last year.
The data shows a strong breakthrough through each stage:
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First 10 months: Reached $7.09 billion (up 15%).
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November 2025: Estimated at $754 million. Although slightly down from October due to seasonal factors, this figure represents a record growth of 64.9% compared to November 2024.
This proves that international market demand for Vietnamese agricultural products is not just a “temporary interest” but is becoming a sustainable consumption trend. With this growth momentum, the target of $8.5 billion for the full year of 2025 is no longer a distant prospect but is well within reach.
2. Key Market Analysis: From China to “Strict” Nations
The success of 2025 comes not only from volume but also from a smart and flexible shift in market structure.
2.1. China – The Billion-People Market Remains the “Backbone”
China continues to affirm its position as the largest trading partner for Vietnamese fruits and vegetables.
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Market Share: Accounts for 62.9% of total export turnover.
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Value: By the end of October, exports to this market reached over $4.5 billion.
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Position: In the first 9 months, China spent $20.3 billion importing fruits and vegetables, with Vietnam accounting for 20% of the market share (equivalent to $4 billion), ranking second only to Thailand.
However, the Chinese market is no longer “easy.” Mr. Nong Duc Lai, Vietnam’s Trade Counselor in China, emphasized that businesses need to leverage cross-border e-commerce channels such as JD.com, Alibaba, or Douyin to reach consumers directly, rather than relying solely on traditional border trade..
2.2. The Rise in “Strict” Markets (USA, Korea, Australia)
A positive signal is the gradual reduction of total dependence on a single market. Vietnamese fruits and vegetables have successfully conquered some of the world’s most stringent technical barriers.
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USA: Accounts for 6.6% market share, reaching nearly $455 million (double-digit growth).
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South Korea: Accounts for 3.9%, reaching over $264 million.
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Malaysia: Recorded the most “miraculous” growth at 70.2%.
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Australia: The official licensing of Vietnamese pomelos entering Australia this year is a major branding victory, paving the way for market diversification.
Note: While most markets are growing, exports to Thailand recorded the sharpest decline (-55.6%). This requires businesses to review their competitive strategies right within the Southeast Asian region.
Table 1: Top Export Markets for Vietnamese Fruit & Vegetables (First 10 Months of 2025)
| Market | Share (%) | Growth Trend | Notes |
| China | 62.9% | Strong Increase | #1 Key Market |
| USA | 6.6% | Double-digit Growth | Premium Market |
| South Korea | 3.9% | Double-digit Growth | Stable |
| Malaysia | – | +70.2% | Sudden Spike |
| Thailand | – | -55.6% | Sharp Decline |
3. The “Star” Products: Durian and Bananas Lead Export Turnover
Contributing to the $7.8 billion figure is the brilliance of the “big six” key fruits: Durian, Banana, Mango, Jackfruit, Coconut, and Pomelo.
Durian – The “King” of Export Fruits
Durian continues to be a billion-dollar item, acting as the “anchor” for the entire industry.
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Turnover: Estimated at $3.4 billion in 11 months, surpassing the total turnover of 2024.
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Market Share: Maintains the #1 position among export fruit items.
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Volume: By the end of September, Vietnam had exported nearly 620,000 tons.
Bananas – Competitive Price Advantage
An interesting surprise in 2025 is the rise of Vietnamese bananas.
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Surpassing the Philippines: For the first time, Vietnamese bananas surpassed the heavyweight competitor, the Philippines, in export volume to China (568,000 tons vs. 416,000 tons).
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Reason: Thanks to optimized production costs and competitive pricing, Vietnamese bananas are gradually capturing market share from other countries in the region.
4. Price Fluctuations and Supply Challenges at the End of 2025
The market at the end of 2025 is witnessing strong price fluctuations, especially for durian, offering great opportunities but also potential risks for farmers and traders.
Durian Price Update (November 2025)
After a deep drop in September-October due to inspection disruptions, domestic durian prices have recovered strongly.
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Monthong Durian (Grade A): 110,000 – 125,000 VND/kg (Up 30-50% compared to the previous month).
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Ri6 Durian: 67,000 – 70,000 VND/kg (Up from the bottom level of 40,000 VND).
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Grade B Goods: Monthong fluctuates around 100,000 VND/kg; Ri6 around 55,000 VND/kg.
Reasons for Price Hike & Scarcity: The Vietnam Fruit & Vegetable Association assesses that the market is falling into a “shortage” situation. This condition is expected to last until March 2026 due to the following factors:
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Seasonal Factors: Currently in the off-season, natural yields are low.
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Natural Disasters: Many orchards in the Mekong Delta were affected by flooding.
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Farming Psychology: Due to low prices in last year’s off-season, many farmers did not induce off-season flowering this year, choosing instead to nurture trees for the main harvest in April 2026 to optimize profits and tree health.
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Input Costs: Production costs for the off-season this year increased by 10-15%.
5. Enterprise Strategy: Quality, Technology, and Logistics
To maintain growth momentum and achieve sustainable export goals, Vietnamese enterprises such as Vina T&T and Chanh Thu are carrying out “revolutions” in quality.
5.1. Enhancing Quality Assurance
Mr. Nguyen Dinh Tung, CEO of Vina T&T, stated that the rate of negative feedback from difficult markets is decreasing year by year. This is proof that Vietnamese agricultural products are not only sellable but selling well.
A representative of Chanh Thu Company shared: “High durian prices come with risks, so controlling pesticide residues and packaging standards is vital.” Businesses are forced to strictly comply with GAP and HACCP processes right from the farming stage.
5.2. Digital Transformation and Traceability
Mr. Dang Phuc Nguyen, General Secretary of the Vietnam Fruit & Vegetable Association, emphasized the role of high technology. Applying Planting Area Codes (PUC) and packaging facility codes is no longer a secondary requirement but a mandatory condition for official customs clearance.
It is necessary to build a national database on agricultural product traceability to make information transparent for international partners, especially China, as they increasingly tighten Orders 248 and 249.
5.3. Logistics and Cold Supply Chain
An inherent weakness that needs fixing is logistics. To penetrate deep into mainland China and reach the US and Europe, Vietnam needs to:
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Perfect the cold storage system at border areas (Lang Son, Quang Ninh, Lao Cai).
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Develop intermodal transport services ensuring the cold chain is not broken.
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Increase deep processing to reduce pressure on fresh fruit consumption and increase added value.
6. 2026 Forecast: Aiming for $8.5 Billion and Global Standing
Based on current growth momentum, economic experts and the Vietnam Fruit & Vegetable Association offer optimistic forecasts for the next period.
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Short-term Goal: Ending 2025, total fruit and vegetable export value will certainly exceed $8 billion, with a high possibility of touching the $8.5 billion mark.
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2026 Goal: Businesses are targeting a growth of 10% – 12%.
The basis for this confidence comes from market expansion (pomelo to Australia, frozen durian soon to China), along with the recovery of the global economy. Besides, Vietnam-China bilateral trade promotion activities are opening opportunities for Chinese enterprises to invest back into Vietnamese raw material areas, creating a sustainable supply chain.
Conclusion
Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable industry is facing unprecedented opportunities. From a country exporting raw agricultural products, we are gradually affirming the position of a high-tech, safe, and responsible agricultural power.
To realize the dream of becoming the “kitchen of the world,” the consensus between the State (policy) – Enterprise (locomotive) – Farmer (root) is the key factor. Compliance with standards, investment in quality, and maintaining “credibility” in trade will be the keys for Vietnamese fruits and vegetables to not only reach $8.5 billion but to reach even further in 2026.
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References
The information and data in this report are compiled from official sources of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD), the Vietnam Fruit & Vegetable Association (Vinafruit), and reputable domestic market news portals. Key references include:
https://thitruongnongsan.gov.vn/vn/tID28016_xuat-khau-rau-qua-sap-vuot-8-ty-usd.html
https://thitruongnongsan.gov.vn/vn/tID28016_xuat-khau-rau-qua-sap-vuot-8-ty-usd.html
https://thitruongnongsan.gov.vn/vn/tID28016_xuat-khau-rau-qua-sap-vuot-8-ty-usd.html
Fruit and vegetable exports rebound, targeting 8 billion USD in 2025 | Vietnam+ (VietnamPlus)
Vietnam’s fruit, vegetable exports eye 8 bln USD in 2025-Xinhua
Vietnam fruit and vegetable exports set to exceed US$8 billion




